Browns' Draft Analysis - After I've Cooled Down

So anyone who knows me knows I was absolutely livid when Manziel was drafted. In fact, I stood up, said goodnight, and left the draft party I was at without another word when it happened. Why? Simply put, Manziel will never amount to anything more than an average starter, at best. However, this is much more than a wasted first-round pick. It is a cancer that the team has inherited, which will serve to cause second-guessing on every mistake Hoyer makes. Hoyer will have a hard time being afforded the normal leash that any QB deserves. Manziel is a glorified Tebow and the Browns will suffer as a result. The Browns are not nearly as good as the Broncos were when they had Tebow and can ill-afford to turn from a healthy Hoyer pre-maturely. However, I've put aside the overwhelming negativity I experienced with that pick and have been able to take an objective look at the overall draft and each individual pick. Here is my analysis:

Justin Gilbert - CB Oklahoma State, First Round, 9th Pick:

True shut-down potential here. Will start week 1

This is not a glamorous pick, but is a huge home run as far as I'm concerned. It is flat-out theft. The Browns acquired the Bills' first round pick next year, and a CB with a significant chance of being better than their already dominant Joe Haden. This dude is a beast, and his coverage ability will only improve under the Browns coaching staff's guidance. Huge win for the Browns. Grade: A

Johnny Manziel - QB Texas A&M, First Round, 22nd Pick:

This is an absolutely atrocious pick. Not even the perpetually awful hype-swayed Jerry Jones wanted the circus that Manziel brings. He was cautioned by his scouts that Manziel was not worth even considering in the first round, at any slot. Yet the Browns, in typical Browns failure, think they have outsmarted everyone in the world and somehow gotten a steal that no one else saw. When it seems too good to be true, it is usually because it is. This is a disastrous pick, that unless Hoyer picks up where he left off last year, immediately, with no delay, in a brutal beginning schedule, coming off of ACL surgery, will serve to end the Browns for the next 2-3 years. Luckily, Hoyer will keep Manziel on the bench, so this is no more than a wasted first round pick, rather than a pick that will destroy the franchise. However, if Hoyer gets hurt, we will be wishing we drafted another QB here, or later in the draft. There is a very small chance that Manziel will manage to stay healthy and change his style of play 180 degrees, which is the only reason this grade isn't an F. Grade: D-

Great bro to party with, not who you want heading your franchise

The next four picks are all extremely good picks, I absolutely love every single one of them - they're ALL A grades, except that the Browns desperately needed a WR. So I will grade these all as A, and the overall draft will reflect the lack of a WR with its grade.

Beast

Joel Bitonio - OG/OT Nevada, Second Round, 35rd Pick:

This is a very solid pick. The Browns desperately needed some versatile linemen. This guy can either take over for Schwartz if he fails to hold at RT, or can start at either guard position if he does. This, in my mind, gives the Browns easily the #1 OL in all of football. That is absolutely crucial for Hoyer's success, as well as the Browns' running game, which they will need all the more now with their thinned out receiver core. Again, not a glamorous pick, but a very very good one that will serve us well for many years. Check out the link in his name to read about how good this guy is. Grade: A

Getting some, welcome to the AFC North son

Christian Kirksey - OLB Iowa, Third Round, 71st Pick:

Some think that OLB is a position of great strength for the Browns. It is. But for a third round pick, as insurance for Mingo's potential bust status, and if not, to provide depth and rotation at OLB, this is another non-glamorous but great pick for the Browns. Kirksey has great speed, and very good instinct. He will serve the Browns well, even if it is only as their 3rd OLB. If thr Browns do go through with moving him to ILB i think there is slightly more risk, but it is a move Kirksey should be able to make relatively easily. He will need to add some weight and may be undersized a bit but we have little to no depth at ILB. Again, this grade does not reflect the fact that the Browns could/should have taken a receiver here. Grade: B-

Ray Rice/Carlos Hyde?

Terrence West - RB Towson, Third Round, 94th Pick:

Poor man's Carlos Hyde. This is the second-best pick of the draft, but has the highest grade because of the Gordon epic-fail. In the absence of receiving threats, the Browns will very much need an absolutely dominant running game to have any chance of success. Between Tate, Lewis and West the Browns not only have insurance against the likely injuries that Tate and Lewis bring the the table, but have an extremely impressive stable of backs to absolutely punish teams behind the NFL's best OL. Grade: A+

Our eventual #1 CB, that's saying something. For now, Nickel

Pierre Desir - CB Lindenwood, Fourth Round, 126th pick:

Wow. I can't really claim it now because I have no proof, but I have nearly written him in about 50 times in my pre-final drafts of my Mock 1.0 and 2.0. This guy is the Richard Sherman of this draft. He is huge, fast, strong, and has great instinct. Absolute steal in the fourth round. Grade: A



Overall, between Manziel and not getting a receiver, the Browns failed pretty badly in this draft, or at least took a huge risk. They're playing with fire here, and the only fireman on duty is Brian Hoyer. Good thing for us, if healthy, Hoyer will still take this team to at least 9 wins this year. The only difference is this will be a team that hangs its hat on defense and a strong running game. Oh wait, this is the Browns and the AFC north we're talking about, so that's EXACTLY what you should do. Anyway, overall grade for this draft is a C because of those two factors. Yes that's how bad I think the Manziel effect will be on this team. Don't get me wrong, Manziel is probably the second most fun person to party with in all of Cleveland (outside of my friends) behind Nick Swisher. He just isn't a football player. Not in the AFC North and not for the Browns. If Hoyer stays healthy, none of this will matter. But if he struggles early and the Browns knee-jerk and put Manziel in, only a Manziel injury will save them. Overall, this draft's success will be directly tied to Hoyer's success. Lots of extremely good picks when taken individually, but time will tell how well they fit as a whole.

GO BROWNS. I'm going with 9-7 now, but still think they can win 11 with some fortunate games and Hoyer staying healthy all year. If Hoyer plays less than a full season, my expectation drops to 5-6 wins.

Welcome to Cleveland Justin Gilbert!

NFL franchises are made by solid picks, not glamorous moves. I love the Browns first selection. The largest individual hole the Browns had remaining on their roster was at Corner opposite of Haden. No longer.

The Browns picked up another pick next year which is never a bad thing and provides insurance in a much better QB draft.

Great pick here!

Browns Mock Draft 2.0

In Hoyer We Still Trust

Draft Day is finally here. And I'm not just talking about the movie - which was incredible. The 2014 NFL Draft is upon us. Shall we begin?

1) There are no QBs in the draft that warrant selection with the fourth pick, or possibly even anywhere in the first round at all this year. This was my stance before, it is my stance now, and it will remain my stance no matter how these QBs pan out, because I predicate it not on their performance, but on Hoyer's.

Cleveland Son

2) Brian Hoyer showed last year that the Browns are ready to win with anything resembling good QB play. Assuming his health is solid, the Browns have no reason to believe that he can't resume and improve on last year's performance.



That being said, here is my second Mock Draft with some brief analysis:

First Round - Fourth Pick Overall

Sammy Watkins - WR Clemson

This pick took a lot of thought to not chageup with. Not because I am not sure that Watkins is worth it, but because of how high on Mack, and Matthews I am. I don't believe Mack will be available. However, I have decided that Watkins is the best player available for the Browns, period, in the entire draft. Throwing him or Matthews into this offense will take this team to the elite level. Both picks would be good ones and I'd be happy with either or even with the Browns trading down. If the Browns trade down it will only be because they think they can land Matthews or Evans a few picks down.

Backup Picks

I'd be happy with Matthews at this spot, but I believe that if the Browns don't draft Watkins, they will probably trade down. How or to where I'm not exactly sure, but Jerry Jones can be persuaded to do foolish things for flashy targets, and everyone knows he wants Manziel....just saying

First Round - 26th Pick Overall

Bradley Roby - RB THE Ohio State University

Swag

If you're still waiting for me to break and have the Browns take a QB before the third round, give it up. The Browns address probably the largest remaining need on the team by plugging the spot opposite of Haden. With Roby and Haden the browns will have literally the best secondary in football, bar none. A stout defense plus Hoyer and all of the new offensive weapons AND retaining their OL (Mack will be re-signed) puts the Browns in square contention for the Super Bowl, not that anyone (or at least me) is surprised by that. There will be a learning curve for Roby but he will definitely settle in nicely as the much-needed #2 corner for this Browns team.

See my above paragraph from my first mock. I am not changing either of my first two choices. Whether the Browns agree with me or not, we'll find out tonight.

Second Round - 35th Pick Overall 

The Browns will address the QB position in this round. I believe the Browns will choose Jimmy Garoppolo from Eastern Illinois. This is the perfect project QB for the Browns. He has good enough size, can make all the throws, and is a smart decision maker with above average athleticism. He won't play right away and he can learn and develop behind Hoyer until needed, if he ever is.

Third Round

I think that in this round the Browns will select the biggest sleeper in the draft - Stanley Jean-Baptiste. I've heard some people say "he's slow". 4.55 is not a slow 40 time. And I seem to recall a "slow" Joe Haden developing into an elite CB in this league too.

How good will the Browns be? 10-11 wins with a healthy Brian Hoyer. Yes I'm serious. This is the most excited I have been entering a Browns' season since 1999. Super Bowl.

Draft Day!

GO BROWNS!

Browns will match Jax offer for Alex Mack

The Secret World of Alex Mack

Alex Mack is widely expected to sign Jacksonville's offer sheet as reported originally by ESPN's Adam Schefter. The deal is rumored to be for 5 years, but front-loaded to include just over 20 million guaranteed in the first 2 years of the deal, and a player opt-out clause either after the first season or after the second. To me, this is absolutely a no-brainer for the Browns and they must re-sign Mack.

Alex Mack is solid - look, two women fit on his back!

The only thing that would justify not matching this deal is if the Browns really believed that Mack absolutely wants out of Cleveland, which is not true. All talk to that extent is just fabricated either by the media or his agent, notorious for such tactics, in order to get the largest possible offer from the Jaguars and force the Browns to match it. If it were New England or Denver I might give a bit more credibility to that, but it isn't. Even so, Mack has always enjoyed his time here in Cleveland and there is no reason to believe any of those reports. He is a professional athlete fighting for the bulk of his entire life's earnings right now. That is all there is to it.

The Browns were already prepared to pay Mack over 10 million for this season and if they couldn't get him locked up for a long-term deal then they would have done the same next year, probably to the tune of 10.5-12 million for one year through the franchise or transition tag again. The Browns were not able to have productive discussions with Mack, probably largely due to his agent again. The reality is that Mack genuinely thought his value was higher than what the Browns were willing to give him, and was encouraged by his agent to believe that.

Demoff just saving face now

When his agent realized the Browns were spot on with their assessment, the only possible way for him to
save face was to get a long-term deal with as much guaranteed money as possible and have the Browns match, which is all Mack wanted all along. If anything, they're extremely fortunate that the Jaguars came calling or else they would have been at the Browns' mercy until next season, and who knows what can happen in a year between injuries and a poor performance or the Browns becoming relevant. All of these factors would have changed the Browns' and Mack's approach.

Instead, we have a win-win for both sides. The Browns get Mack locked up for 5 years, with potentially less than 20 million locked up in guaranteed money over the first 2 years, Mack gets the long-term deal and money he wanted, and most critically, the Browns retain one of the most talented and consistent offensive linemen in football on a team which can't afford to bleed away any talent at all.

Value to the Organization

Just listen to Peyton Manning discuss Jeff Saturday in any of the hundreds of times he has, and you will know how valuable a talented consistent center is to any QB. The Browns can't afford to spend a draft pick on a center this year as they already have plenty of other needs to fill. Hoyer needs Mack as much as Mack needed his long-term deal. Any QB who the Browns draft, if pressed into service, will also need Mack, rather than adding yet another unknown variable in front of a young QB.

For these reasons, I'm glad to see the report that the Browns are likely to match. We can now all move on, stop hating Mack, realize this was about a professional doing what is right and best for himself, and a team deeming the value he brings to the organization to be worth what he is asking. We can get back to the season now: that is to say, get back to Brian Hoyer leading this team to the Super Bowl!!!

Add me on Twitter and don't miss a beat! @AkitaKid

GO BROWNS

Gordon needs to button up

Between Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, Brian Hoyer and the Browns, Josh Gordon is rapidly running out of friends in Cleveland. Count me among those not amused by his antics. Let's review his activity the last two weeks, he's been quite the busy-bee:

1. He went on a whirlwind media tour (over several days) to not only openly campaign for a new QB, but to also claim that he happens to know from direct conversations with Browns' GM Ray Farmer that they're going to draft a QB.
2. He's used phrasing like "what sounds better to Josh Gordon" to introduce his interviews in which he will discuss whether he likes the sound of "Bridgewater to Gordon" or "Manziel to Gordon" more. Personally I like the sound of "hard-working, not-arrested, football-focused Josh Gordon" but that's just me...
3. And lastly, because all of the above wasn't enough, he next switched sports and targeted the Cavaliers, specifically Kyrie Irving and the supposed rift between he and Dion Waiters.

Here is why these activities need to cease immediately. I'm not sure if Gordon just needs to stay in his house or if the team needs to just have a chat with him and tell him to show more discretion but it shouldn't continue.

Let's first assume that he actually did know what the plans for the draft were; and that he got this information directly from Ray Farmer. Would it really be wise for him to then go to the public and divulge this information? No, it wouldn't. It would be the opposite, and if that is actually what happened, he would have been disciplined heavily by the team.

Since that's obviously not the case, then not only is it now clear that Gordon is making things up - for whatever reason - but he's throwing his current, and likely future, QB under the RTA-Rapid. I'm not sure there is any possible scenario under the sun where you can salvage any positive from this. Even in the event that a new QB is drafted and somehow starts over Hoyer, Gordon still comes off badly.

I'm not sure I can think about any QB ever making a statement about not being able to wait for new linemen to block for him or new receivers to throw to. Even if they believed it, it is never something that is stated. Football is the penultimate team sport. Without team chemistry and team unity behind the coach, there is no chance at success. For Gordon to be making these kinds of statements, especially considering his being one-strike away from a one year ban, is absolutely mind-boggling. He has neither the strikes left nor the clout and respect in this league to be saying anything along these lines.

And just to make sure we knew that he controls this city, he next went on the offensive against Kyrie Irving. Gordon posits that it's obvious to everyone that Waiters and Irving hate each other and Irving has absolutely no interest in staying in Cleveland. Not his sport, not his business, and not his area of expertise. He earned some nice retaliatory remarks from Irving but he never should have opened his mouth.

So Josh, if you're reading this - the best players in all sports are those who bury you with their play on the field and are quiet the entire off-season. No one wants to hear what you want to see drafted. We only want to hear how much you love your teammates, love this city, and love football. Stick to that and keep the rest bottled up. That's your duty and responsibility as a potential leader on this team. That is, if you even want to have that role.

Tribe delivers an opener to remember

April 4, 2014 - Tribe Home Opener

It doesn't get much better than Friday night as far as home openers go. The Indians sent a potential future ace to the mound, there was an incredible atmosphere downtown, Indians' legend Carlos Baerga was in town, and the Indians took on the Twins on the 20th birthday of one of the nicest ballparks in baseball; right after adding Jason Kipnis to their list of young talent locked up for the long-term.
At the end of the day, win or lose, this game was a victory for the people of Cleveland regardless. A win would have been fantastic - a crazy come-from-behind victory was just icing on the cake.

Salazar started the game a bit shaky but was able to settle in and pitch 6 innings, limiting the damage to 2 runs. His breaking pitches were not working for him Friday but luckily for the Tribe, his fastball is setllar. The Indians hung around long enough for their offense to get going and boy did it. Gomes started things off with his towering home run to dead center. Soon afterwards Nick Swisher made sure he didn't get off to the slow start that plagued him last year with a 2-run shot to right field putting the Indians ahead for good, 3-2.

If Swisher returns to form in an offense that was the 5th best in baseball despite he and Cabrera both having down years, there's no telling how good this team could be.

Starting Pitching Struggles

Salazar is showing some mental toughness so far this year and was able to stabilize the boat. Carassco is off to a rough start, giving up 5 earned runs today, but he has also shown flashes of the talent that makes the Indians keep taking chances on him. If he can ever learn to pitch he has the stuff to be dominant, but if he doesn't get it together within 3 or 4 starts, it will be time to bring up Tomlin, whose biggest strength is his accuracy, and has added several MPH to his fastball post-TJ surgery.

Justin Masterson struggled mightily in his second start, but I don't find any alarm here. Just like Kluber, McAllister, and Salazar all struggled a bit so far this year, I think this will all balance out over time. The encouraging thing is that the Indians' offense looks like they've shaken any remaining rust off and are off to a scintillating start. Swisher has so far avoided his slow start and looks like he has picked up right where he left off late last season, David Murphy is doing some good work so far in the limited time we've seen him, and Lonnie Chisenhall is off to a great start despite the fact that he hasn't even grown in his handlebar mustache yet. When he does - watch out.

The Tribe took one out of three against the lowly Twins but with even remotely decent outings by their starting pitchers in games 2 and 3 they would have swept the series. Overall the offense is ticking and with the exception of Pestano and Wood I think the bullpen is all set. The jury is still out on those two, and maybe even on Axford yet.

3 Wins down, 92 to go! Roll Tribe!
  

Ready for the home opener, Cleveland style!

The Tribe is coming home. April 4, 2014. The first home game in what promises to be an epic season. This team is preparing to take their rightful place right up there with the 95 and 97 Indians - the only difference here is that this team is going to finish the job. Let's explore why:

Happy 20th Birthday Jake!

The A's are a good team:

Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir both had spectacular games, and Gray is a legitimate ace in the making. Despite this, the Tribe still made Gray work hard enough to chase him from the game after 6 innings and were able to do their damage when it mattered, after a masterful outing by Justin Masterson.

Kluber and Masterson will rebound:

One thing we've learned about Kluber and Masterson is that they're not flukes. They both had rough outings to start the season but they're both excellent at pitching within their means. They both have great control and are able to keep hitters off balance and combine their pitches effectively. They will both continue to improve as the season progresses, as they have done since they came into the majors.

Hitting fundamentals:

Swisher: 4.14 pitches/AB
Aviles: 4.75
Cabrera: 4.23
Brantley: 3.75
Gomes: 4.57
Kipnis: 4.14

Dr. Smooth off to a hot start

These are some outstanding average pitches seen per AB. When a team is being this consistently patient at the plate, you're undoubtedly going to chase starting pitchers out of the game earlier. The more often you do that, the more often you win, period. This consistent approach is what made the Indians one of the best offenses in baseball despite not having any individual hit more than 22 HR or 84 RBI.

The Tribe stranded 8.67 runners on average in the first three games of the season. This places them 23rd in the league. This obviously won't continue considering how many batters they've gotten on base and how patient they've been in their approach at the plate.

Great to see this kid extended

Kipnis was just extended for 6 years:

Extended Kipnis and Gomes as the Indians have done this year not only provides a stable base for many years to come, something this fanbase has seldom enjoyed since the 90s, but it also allows those guys to go out and play loose - the best way a Tito team plays.




The home opener is tomorrow:

Hargrove tossing the first pitch to Alomar, alumni autograph sessions, 70 degrees (ya maybe some rain too but oh well). Who knows what other surprise 90s Indians guests and surprises are in store for the Cleveland faithful tomorrow? Maybe the biggest surprise in store is witnessing the first home game of the first World Series winning season since 1948. Roll Tribe!!