Jake turns 20 - Season Predictions

Jacob's Field

It is easy to turn any article about the Indians into a sweet trip down memory lane of the 90's golden age of baseball in Cleveland. I won't do that here; but it would be a disservice not to mention that era as April 4, 2014 marks the 20th anniversary of the ballpark formerly known as Jacob's Field.

Forever the Jake

It was an era now marred by steroids, but at the time, the strike had just ended, the Indians had a brand new stadium, and a star-filled lineup the likes of which may never been seen again. Never has there been such an exciting offense, never so many comebacks, never so many story lines. Mike Hargrove headed the ship and will throw out the first pitch - to his catcher Sandy Alomar, now the Indian's bench coach - 20 years on from when President Clinton threw it out on April 4.

The opening day festivities are something I am personally looking forward to; I'll be sitting upper deck for the game itself as well. However, can this Tribe team deliver the ultimate dedication to those great 90's teams and bring home the hardware after a taste of the magic last year? Let's take a look by category at how these Indians stack up going into this 2014 season with so much hope in Cleveland.

Outfield:

The Tribe boasts quite the outfield. They have Bourn (DL), Brantley, Murphy, Raburn, Nyjer Morgan, and Aviles all capable of playing outfield. I'll take that outfield any day of the week. 

Poised for an even better season

Brantley posted one of his best seasons last year and is poised for a breakout year. His BB:SO rate was down last year and looking at his career it can be expected to improve this year. Bourn had somewhat of a down year last year but statistically all indications are that he will improve on several lines from last year - his career BA is .271 and his SB, SLG, and OBP should also stabilize to closer to his career averages. Combine this with getting anywhere near Murphy's normal career stats and you are looking at a very solid outfield rotation.

GRADE: B+

Infield:

Name two people you'd rather have a beer with

The infield for the Indians is solid defensively but inconsistent offensively - however, there are several wildcards here. Jason Kipnis is poised for a tremendous breakout year. Former Tribe GM John Hart pegged him as the 3rd best 2B in baseball and if he improves this year he could conceivably jump in that ranking. Asdrubal Cabrera had a terrible year for his standards last year but should be expected to rebound considerably, especially considering he is in a contract year. However, whether he improves or not he may be dealt for another bat or SP since Francisco Lindor is poised in the wings and appears ready to assume a full time role at SS.

Bring back the handlebar son

Lonnie Chisenhall is not officially pegged as the starting 3B - that position is Carlos Santana's for now - but he will see time there and at DH. He is also poised for a breakout season - though we have been saying that about him for a few years now. Taking Santana's place behind the plate is the freshly-extended (6 years) Yan Gomes. Gomes is a defensive stalwart with an increasingly potent yet underrated bat.

Overall this is a unit that is solid defensively, especially up the middle, and should be considerably above average offensively. One of the biggest strengths of this infield is the number of pitches seen. With the exception of Cabrera and Chisenhall, all of the players on this infield are extremely selective batters:

Carlos Santana: 4.3 P/AB (1st in MLB)
Jason Kipnis: 4.2 P/AB (1st in MLB)
Asdrubal Cabrera: 3.85 P/AB (2nd in MLB)
Nick Swisher: 3.98 P/AB (9th in MLB)
Chisenhall: 3.79 P/AB (14th in MLB)

One of the reasons that the Indians had such success last year is the number of pitches seen by the team. They consistently generated base runners and consistently took walks. This is the most consistent way to generate runs. If coupled with solid pitching, you have a recipe for winning.

GRADE: A-

Starting Pitching:

This is the one area of moderate concern for these Indians. My opinion is that Masterson is not a legitimate #1 pitcher, but better suited as a 2 or 3. I think that Salazar can develop into a 1 but he isn't there yet either. As for Carrasco, that experiment will end halfway through this season at the latest, at which point Cabrera will either be dealt for a SP or Tomlin will have to come in and play as well as we all hope he can in the 5 slot.

Absolutely filthy

Kluber and McAllister are both great pitchers and well suited in their positions in the rotation this year. The Tribe starting pitching was overall excellent last year and I see no reason that they won't be at least as good if not better this year, despite the departure of Kazmir and Jimenez.

With the exception of Carrasco, every SP on this roster can be expected to have a sub-3.75 ERA. That is fantastic and should lead to many QS for this rotation. Once the necessary adjustment is made and Carrasco is replaced with Tomlin, this team should have no glaring weakness in their rotation, though they may also not have a clear-cut ace either.

GRADE: B+

Bullpen:

The bullpen, at least for me, was quite a surprise last year. Going into the season it was considered our biggest strength and SP was expected to be the weak link. However, last year, the two switched roles as the bullpen repeatedly blew games and the SP was overall very consistent. The two biggest factors, to me, were Vinnie Pestano and the now-departed Chris Perez. Perez was replaced by John Axford who should prove to be a significant upgrade, or at least less stress-inducing. It seems as if every successful save that Perez converted started with 3 straight walks or 3 straight singles.

Cody Allen should continue his emergence in the pen, Pestano can be expected to return to form, even if not quite to 2012 form, and if Mark Rzepzynski is even close to as dominant as last year, this unit should be able to improve significantly on last year's performance.

GRADE: B-

Managing:

Terry Francona, Sandy Alomar, and Mickey Callaway. Enough said.

Two peas in a pod

GRADE: A+

Depth:

The Indians are also fairly well set as far as depth thanks to two factors - several players in the minor leagues ready to step up when needed, highlighted by Lindor, and the lack of a "can't lose" type player since they receive significant contributions throughout their lineup from just about every player - one of the few advantages of not having that one huge bat that you can't replace. This is not to say they can easily afford to replace players like Kipnis or Brantley, but they are better suited to survive than other teams. They are short at SP and in their bullpen however, so this grade is significantly hurt by that fact.

GRADE: B-

Clutch Hitting:

This is not a ''normal" stat to hang your hat on, but the Indians have been so consistent it is worth taking a look:

Runs Scored: 6th in MLB

RS with RISP/ 2-Out: 231, 5th in MLB

BA with RISP/ 2-Out:  .252, 6th in MLB
SLG with RISP/ 2-Out: .416, 2nd in MLB
HR with RISP/ 2-Out: 20, 2nd in MLB

They consistently were selective at the plate, drew walks, hit for power, stole bases, and advanced runners when the pressure was highest. This is the sign of a well-coached team with fantastic discipline at the plate. There is not reason to expect this to end - it should certainly continue or even improve this year as Cabrera, normally one of the more clutch hitters on the team, was absolutely awful last season.

GRADE: A+

Season Prediction:
I am going to unabashedly make the following prediction: 94-95 Wins, 1st in Central. Detroit will finish with 91-93 wins. The Indians almost caught Detroit last year and the lesson learned was to not start slow. Francona will not allow a slow start this year like we had last year, and the Tribe should benefit greatly from this. I believe the Indians offense will again finish top-5 in most categories, the SP will be adequate, and the bullpen will improve. Lastly, the Indians will do everything possible to avoid the obnoxious one-game play-in of the Wild Card round.

How far will this team go? Time will tell, but I certainly think they have the appropriate talent to win it all this year. So since predictions are based on expectations and don't factor in injuries or unexpected declines in effectiveness:

The Tribe finally brings a championship home to Cleveland, winning the WS in 6 games against the Braves in the ultimate payback for the '95 WS.

GO TRIBE!